I wondered, few days ago, what issues might be dominating Turkish politics and society had the coronavirus outbreak not happened?
It would be unrealistic to expect states, whose sole aim is to maximize their own interests in the international arena, to set aside their foreign policy goals even in times of crisis such as this. Indeed, crises tend to have significant effects on the domestic and foreign policies of nations. It is therefore unrealistic to expect governments to institute foreign policy “lockdowns,” in the way that they have done so domestically.
This would be especially difficult for Turkey, where barely a day passes without a new development in both domestic and foreign affairs. It is therefore worth taking a closer look on what is happening in the foreign sphere in the shadow of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Syria, Libya, the Eastern Mediterranean and the issue of Turkey’s Russian-built S-400 missile defense systems are all ensuring the Turkish Foreign Ministry will remain busy throughout, and after, the pandemic.
In a message posted on Twitter last Monday, Turkey’s Communications Director Fahrettin Altun said that foreign policy matters are not being ignored during the pandemic.
“Our government continues to be focused on the coronavirus challenge at home and abroad but we are also working on foreign policy matters such as those in Syria, Libya and the Aegean Sea,” he wrote. “As President (Recep Tayyip) Erdogan indicated, the Syrian regime is trying to take advantage of the situation.”
The foreign ministers of Turkey, Iran and Russia held a teleconference on Wednesday as part of the seventh foreign ministerial meeting of the Astana process. They discussed the latest developments in Syria, particularly in Idlib province and east of the Euphrates River, amid growing concern about the future of the fragile ceasefire in the former region.
“Discussed fight against COVID-19 pandemic in the context of Syria,” Turkey’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Mevlut Cavusoglu wrote on Twitter after the meeting. “Reviewed recent developments, particularly in Idlib and East of Euphrates, political process, humanitarian situation and return of refugees.”
The meeting followed intense diplomatic exchanges between the three Astana guarantors at the presidential level. Erdogan and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, had a telephone conversation late on Tuesday with a special emphasis on Syria. A presidential-level summit under the Astana process had been planned but was postponed due to the spread of the coronavirus.
Meanwhile, Turkish and Russian military forces carried out another joint patrol along a key highway in northwestern Syria on Tuesday. “Fifth combined Turkish-Russian land patrol was conducted today by air and ground vehicles on M4 motorway in Syria’s Idlib province, as part of the earlier….agreement,” according to a tweet by the Turkish Ministry of National Defense.
The situation in Idlib remains uncertain and fragile, however, and developments there in the weeks and months ahead will have a big effect on the future of the Astana process. Erdogan on Monday accused the Syrian government of taking advantage of the fact that the world is distracted by the pandemic to increase attacks in Idlib.
Another area of Turkish foreign policy for which the future remains uncertain is the situation in war-torn Libya. There are two main sides in the war: The Government of National Accord, and military commander Khalifa Haftar. Their conflict was escalating before the pandemic, and while the world has been overwhelmed in recent weeks by the coronavirus crisis and its consequences, it has continued to do so.
This has diverted the attention of foreign policy experts from the global pandemic, in particular when Turkish jets took off from military bases in Konya and Incirlik bound for the Eastern Mediterranean and Libya. This raised questions about the possibility of a military operation in the country.
Hours later, however, Turkey’s Ministry of National Defense announced that the Turkish Armed Forces had conducted an unannounced aerial and naval exercise in the Eastern Mediterranean. It remains to be seen how the situation in Libya, where Turkey is actively involved, will unfold in the weeks ahead.
The other issue dominating the Turkish agenda is the S-400 missile defense systems. According to a report by Reuters, plans to activate the new, Russian-made systems have been delayed by the pandemic but Ankara does not intend to reverse its decision, which has raised the threat of the US sanctions.
As the pandemic continues around the world, the hopes that guns might fall silent in war-torn countries have been dashed by the escalation of the conflicts in Syria and Libya.
Reuters quoted a senior Turkish official as saying the delay could last for several months because of “technical issues.” However, Erdogan stated that the delay should not be viewed as a change of heart. “The S-400s are now our property. All parts have arrived, and (the systems) will become operational in April,” the president previously told journalists after he met Putin in Moscow on March 5.
As the pandemic continues around the world, the hopes that guns might fall silent in war-torn countries have been dashed by the escalation of the conflicts in Syria and Libya. As a result, it seems Turkey will be unable to take a step back from these battle zones.
