Who is most likely to win the 2015 Ballon d’Or? Miguel Delaney ranks the 23 contenders in order of most likely to win football’s top award after FIFA
1. Lionel Messi
For him: The outstanding favourite, after the outstanding season of his career — and that’s really saying something. Messi, who scored 58 goals in all competitions in 2014-15, was by far the figure most responsible for Barcelona’s Treble.
Against him: The Copa America final defeat to Chile on penalties, and perhaps the mere passage of time, given that Messi’s sensational performances at the end of last season’s Champions League aren’t quite so fresh in the memory.
2. Cristiano Ronaldo
For him: Another scarcely believable year of goal scoring, as he hit well over a goal a game with 61 in all competitions in 2014-15, to also break Real Madrid’s record.
Against him: None of his goals actually brought any trophies.
3. Neymar
For him: At 23, showed the sign of things to come with his first genuinely commanding season in Europe, as he dovetailed with Barcelona teammates Messi and Luis Suarez so divinely to also hit the clinching goal in the Champions League final. The player most likely to be the next best in the world once Messi and Ronaldo move on.
Against him: A tempestuous red card in the Copa America and, like Suarez, is still mostly complementing the main man — Messi.
4. Luis Suarez
For him: A new role in perhaps the greatest strike trio the game has ever seen, and a new level for his career, as Suarez also hit the key goal to make it 2-1 in the Champions League final.
Against him: Not as prolific as his time at Liverpool, nor was he the dominant player.
5. Robert Lewandowski
For him: The Bayern Munich striker has gradually become one of the most prolific and best strikers in the world, most conspicuously hitting 15 goals in six games — including one five-goal haul in nine minutes. The Poland international also enjoyed a brilliant autumn spell that also saw him break the record for goals in a European Championship qualifying campaign to end it as top scorer.
Against him: Those goals didn’t really come at the business end of the Champions League, and he has only really accelerated in form towards the end of the year.
6. Paul Pogba
For him: Set up Alvaro Morata’s crucial goal away to Real Madrid in the Champions League semifinal, and that was one of many important moments that set up a domestic Double for Juventus and almost a Treble.
Against him: Maybe not Juve’s most influential midfielder and he’s still more brilliant potential rather than breakthrough application, even if that is starting to change.
7. Ivan Rakitic
For him: Perhaps the key player in finally helping Barcelona move to a different style, and there can be no greater compliment than the fact for the first time they didn’t badly miss Xavi Hernandez.
Against him: Only really that he’s in a team with so many stars, and three geniuses — it would take a big surprise to beat them to the podium.
8. Andres Iniesta
For him: Enjoyed his best season since 2012, orchestrating so much for Barcelona
Against him: Still doesn’t quite score enough goals — he didn’t net any in La Liga or the Champions League last season — and goals tend to be the biggest vote-getter here.
9. Javier Mascherano
For him: One of the best defensive players in the world, who pins so much of this Barca team together, and performed so well in the Copa America.
Against him: He doesn’t score, and didn’t quite see deliverance with Argentina, as they lost the Copa America final.
10. Alexis Sanchez
For him: Hit the penalty that won Chile’s first ever Copa America, in what was a fine personal tournament, and so often looked unplayable for opposition defences.
Against him: Suffered a few too many droughts this year, despite belatedly recovering his best form with Arsenal, and only scored one goal in in this summer’s Copa America.
11. Eden Hazard
For him: The most influential player in the Premier League last season, as emphasised by his player-of-the-year awards, and so many decisive moments that saw Chelsea win their first title in five years.
Against him: Hasn’t really kicked on in a poor start to the 2015-16 season, and even last campaign there was still the sense that he could have been more commanding right throughout matches.
12. Sergio Aguero
For him: The Premier League’s top scorer in the 2014-15 season with 26 goals, again emphasising the Manchester City player’s supreme talent as maybe the world’s finest goal scorer who isn’t Messi or Ronaldo.
Against him: Always seems to get an injury just as he’s about to move on to the absolute top level, preventing him from achieving the consistency that really gets you onto that podium.
13. Yaya Toure
For him: A vintage achievement as he was crucial to ending Ivory Coast’s 23-year wait for the African Nations Cup, and offered typically big goals for City.
Against him: Has the odd slump for the English side, and didn’t have the impact on the Champions League he should have.
14. Thomas Muller
For him: One of the finest and most versatile forward players in the world, who so greatly helps the movement of fluid Germany and Bayern Munich teams.
Against him: If he didn’t make the podium in a year when he was a key player in a World Cup-winning team, he isn’t going to get in when he’s slightly below that form for a side that failed to win the Champions League.
15. Zlatan Ibrahimovic
For him: Once again Paris Saint-Germain’s most influential player as they once again won Ligue 1 — his consistency is remarkable.
Against him: The increasing feeling he’s on the wane, and that he should be really doing it beyond the domestic league. The fact PSG beat Chelsea to qualify for the Champions League quarterfinals despite his red card feels someway symbolic.
16. James Rodriguez
For him: A sparkling debut season for Real, showing how he may be the best pure playmaker in the world, and a potential successor to Messi and Ronaldo as a regular winner of this award.
Against him: Formation changes meant the Copa America didn’t see the best of him.
17. Toni Kroos
For him: One of the best midfield directors of play on the planet.
Against him: Like with so many at Real, the fact they won nothing and Barca won everything.
18. Arjen Robben
For him: Remarkably prolific when on the pitch, hitting 17 goals in 21 games of a Bundesliga-winning season, reflecting how he remains one of the world’s most dangerous forwards.
Against him: Injuries meant he couldn’t show his quality at the key moments — most notably the Champions League semifinal loss against Barcelona. Bayern have already started signing players, such as Douglas Costa, to ensure his absences don’t cost them as much.
19. Karim Benzema
For him: His very placing on this list means he isn’t underrated, but so much of the work he does for the rest of Real’s stellar attack can seem under-valued.
Against him: He’s not the main man, and this award is all about being the main man.
20. Manuel Neuer
For him: As solid as ever as Bayern won the German title, with the goalkeeper starting 31 of the club’s 34 matches.
Against him: Outfoxed by Messi in the Champions League semifinal, reversing the 2014 World Cup final, and emphasising that he wasn’t as influential as the last year.
21. Kevin De Bruyne
For him: A year in which he moved onto another level, driving Wolfsburg to Champions League qualification, and earning that huge £54 million move to Manchester City.
Against him: These are still just the feats of someone who may win this award in future, rather than someone who’s done enough to win it now.
22. Gareth Bale
For him: Really starting to take responsibility at Real, and no longer just a support act to Ronaldo.
Against him: Struggled in the Champions League semifinal, in a season when Real won nothing.
23. Arturo Vidal
For him: Few outside Barcelona had such complete years, as he won a Copa America with Chile and a Double with Juventus, while also getting to the Champions League final with a string of brilliant performances. Those displays earned him a €37 million transfer to Bayern.
Against him: His arrest for drunk driving during the Copa America may put voters off.
Agencies
